research reportsstrategic insights and forecasts
Payment-related Research
- The Mobile Wallet in Canada
- Canadian Payments Forecast: 2010
- Canadian Payments Forecast: 2009
- EMV Migration in Canada: Opportunities and Challenges
- Prospects for the Smart Card Market in Canada
ICTs in Emerging Economies Research
- ICT Investment Opportunities in Africa - Volume 1
(Ethiopia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe) - ICT Investment Opportunities in Ethiopia
- ICT Investment Opportunities in Nigeria
- ICT Investment Opportunities in Zimbabwe
The Mobile Wallet in Canada
Scheduled publication date: September 23, 2011
| Table of contents | News release |
Mobile payment technology is surging ahead, but is it leaving the consumer behind? Does the consumer want or need a Mobile Wallet? A TSI/Hotspex survey among 1,000+ Canadian mobile phone users and smartphone intenders looks at consumer ‘app-rehension’ over the Mobile wallet, and what’s behind it.
Previous Hotspex studies prove that smart-phones are the most emotionally driven category ever tested, on par with beer. When you layer security issues into the equation, two-thousand open-ended responses by consumers revealed a far more complex picture of what is required to gain trust. Negative emotions such as apprehension, discomfort, confusion, and pessimism were prevalent, largely driven by fraud, privacy and identity theft concerns.
In conducting this study to test the mobile wallet concept, Hotspex used its unique emotional science methodology to uncover the real drivers of acceptance amongst consumers in the Canadian marketplace. The study was designed, and results analysed, by Technology Strategies International, Canada's leading payment industry research and analysis firm.
For all players in the mobile payment ecosystem, the Mobile Wallet in Canada report offers in-depth insights into the key success criteria for this new payment technology. It comprehensively answers the following important questions:
1. What are the primary obstacles to the mobile wallet adoption?
2. What would clear the path for widespread consumer acceptance?
3. What do consumers think and feel about integrating this technology into their everyday lives?
4. What are the mobile wallet functionality ‘hot buttons’ and watch-outs?
5. Which provider is the ‘most likely to succeed’ according to consumers?
Download the Mobile Wallet in Canada prospectus (PDF).
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Canadian Payments Forecast - 2010
Published: August - 2010
138 pages
80 charts
20 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Canadian Payments Forecast - 2010, is an authoritative and independent strategic review, analysis and market forecast on Canada’s payment industry. New payment segments, in particular, cross-border debit, contactless debit and credit, mobile and alternative online payments are set for extraordinary growth over the next five years. Some key findings of the research include:
- The impact of the recession was felt in the payments space with cash withdrawal from ABMs, cash purchases, credit purchases and credit card cash advance volumes declining. Online payments, cross-border payments and contactless payments were largely unaffected by the recession, and grew rapidly in 2009.
- The intensity of competition is increasing in the Canadian debit payments space. MasterCard and Visa have managed to secure the support of leading issuers to launch an alternative, and more lucrative interchange-driven, debit payment product in Canada – a space currently dominated by Interac
- The merchant lobby has been highly effective in delaying the launch of scheme debit in Canada. The Credit and Debit Card Industry Code of Conduct has forced would-be issuers of alternative debit products to rethink their launch strategies.
- Contactless payments have extended their reach remarkably quickly over the past year, and issuers and acquirers are undertaking a major thrust to make contactless payments ubiquitous in appropriate payment settings.
- Cross-border payments are expected to increase apace, with the entry of scheme debit stimulating growth in both the outbound and inbound cross-border payments segments.
- Alternative online payment mechanisms (i.e. non-credit card payments) will account for one third of all online payments made by Canadians by 2014
- Mobile payments continue to attract the interest of payment companies, banks and acquirers, especially in the face of increase smartphone usage in Canada.
Canadian Payments Forecast, 2010, is a comprehensive review, analysis and forecast of consumer payments in Canada. It identifies high growth segments in the Canadian payments market in the context of important trends, as well as recent developments in the economy and the industry. The impact of the recession is examined and key industry developments are analyzed in terms of their impact on the industry. Detailed forecasts are presented on consumer payments and related acceptance infrastructure. Prospects for mobile payments in the Canadian marketplace are analyzed in-depth. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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Canadian Payments Forecast - 2009
Published: February - 2009
111 pages
69 charts
15 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Canadian Payments Forecast - 2009, is an authoritative and independent strategic review, analysis and market forecast available on the Canada’s payment industry. New payment segments, in particular, cross-border debit, contactless, mobile and alternative online payments are set for extraordinary growth over the next five years. Some key findings of the research include:
- The recession in Canada will result in lower growth for debit and credit card payments as consumers cut back on their expenditures
- Contactless payments will be the highest growth segment over the next five years, exhibiting phenomenal growth and encroaching on the areas currently dominated by cash and debit cards
- Card issuers will use the EMV implementation card reissue cycle to issue cards with contactless payment functionality
- Alternative payment mechanisms for online payments (i.e. non-credit card payments) will account for one third of all online payments made by Canadians by 2013
- Cross border payments will grow by 70% per year over the next five years
Canadian Payments Forecast, 2009, is a comprehensive review, analysis and forecast of consumer payments in Canada. It identifies high growth segments in the Canadian payments market in the context of important trends as well as recent developments in the economy and the industry. The impact of the recession is examined and the following key developments are analyzed with respect to their impact on the market: fraud, duality in the credit card market; the emerging battleground around merchant discount rates; and Interac’s application to the Competition Bureau to convert to a ‘for-profit’ organization. Detailed forecasts are presented for debit and credit cards in circulation, credit card payments, debit card payments, cash payments, cheque payments, contactless payments, cross-border payments, online payments, ABM installations and POS terminals. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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EMV Migration in Canada: Opportunities and challenges
Published: February - 2007
115 pages
31 charts
16 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
EMV Migration in Canada: Opportunities and Challenges, 2007, is the most comprehensive and authoritative independent strategic analysis and forecast available on the Canada's EMV migration plans. While the planning for EMV implementation is at an advanced stage in Canada, there are a number of critical challenges that need to be addressed by issuers, acquirers and retailers for migration to be successful. Some key findings of the research include:
- EMV migration will be slower than anticipated because of the numerous challenges facing issuers, acquirers, merchants and white-label ABM owners
- By 2010, the date set by Visa Canada for the liability shift between issuers and acquirers in Canada, only 36% of all credit cards in Canada will have migrated to EMV-compliant smart cards
- The most significant threat to EMV migration in Canada is in the area of contactless and wireless payments
EMV Migration in Canada: Opportunities and Challenges, 2007, is a comprehensive and insightful strategic assessment of Canada’s EMV migration program. It includes a detailed analysis of the Canadian payments landscape and establishes the payment context in which EMV migration will take place. The 115 page report identifies the most important threats to EMV migration in Canada, and the challenges that will need to be addressed by issuers, acquirers and different classes of merchants for migration to be successful. Key opportunity areas are identified. Detailed forecasts are presented for the migration of credit and debit cards, POS terminals, ABMs and automatic fuel dispensers to EMV. View a complete table of contents here.
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Prospects for the Smart Card Market in Canada
Published: February - 2007
209 pages
56 charts
30 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Prospects for the Chip Card Market in Canada: 2007 is the most comprehensive, insightful and authoritative strategic market analysis and forecast available on the Canadian smart card market. Based on interviews with more than 85 key executives in the industry, as well as extensive secondary research, the report provides subscribers with essential information needed to succeed in this highly dynamic and rapidly developing market. Key findings of the study include:
- The Canadian market is on the eve of dramatic expansion, with the number of cards in circulation forecast to grow by more than 50% per year for the next five years.
- By 2011, more than 110 million smart cards will be in circulation in Canada
- EMV migration in Canada will see payment chip cards accounting for 90% of annual demand for chip cards in Canada by 2011
- GSM SIM cards and smart cards used for conditional access for satellite television will remain significant market segments
- Multi-application cards using the EMV infrastructure will take more than 10 years to appear on the scene in significant numbers
The Canadian smart card market is unique, both in the way in which the market is developing, and in how the supply structure is adapting to meet expected surge in demand for smart cards, terminals and related systems. This report positions the Canadian market in the context of global smart card market developments, examines important technology trends influencing the Canadian market, and provides subscribers with an in-depth assessment of the opportunities for smart cards in Canada in different application sectors, together with insightful analysis of the challenges facing the deployment of smart card systems in these areas. This 210-page market survey, analysis and forecast based on primary and secondary research conducted by Technology Strategies International provides the most in-depth and insightful market intelligence on developments in the Canadian chip card market. It identifies market trends, growth opportunities, key drivers and critical challenges facing market development. It provides essential information for organizations interested in gaining an understanding of, and tracking developments in, the Canadian marketplace. View a complete table of contents here.
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ICT Investment Opportunities in Africa - 2010
Published: March - 2010
118 pages
29 charts
21 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Africa is a continent of contrasts. Endemic poverty and political malfeasance are the most widely understood characteristics, but the nascent market power of an underdeveloped continent with a population that is expected to exceed 1 billion people for the first time in 2010, is staggering. The continent that gave birth to the concept of the ‘Digital Divide’ has, with a speed that has confounded even the most optimistic, embraced aspects of information and communications technology at an envious pace. Over the past five years growth in Africa’s mobile communications market has outstripped growth in the global mobile market by a factor of 2 to 1, and at the end of 2009 there were almost 450 million mobile subscribers. African ICT penetration is still well below global averages, and African teledensity is bordering on 50% in a world where the 100% mark represents no barrier.
In this report – the first in a series of such reports – we examine market growth prospects and ICT investment opportunities in three countries, notably, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia and Nigeria. These countries have been selected on the basis that they are high growth/high opportunity markets, markets that have sometimes not received the same level of attention that others in Africa may have.
The ICT investment opportunity review and market forecast prepared for each country will provide important information for companies that are interested in investing in, or competing in, the ICT sector in emerging African markets. Members of the investment community, including investment bankers, development bankers, venture capitalists and private equity companies, angel investors, institutional investors and corporate investors, will find the information in this report invaluable in providing background, context and strategic analysis. It provides a comprehensive review of the investment environment in each country.
Mobile operators, fixed line operators, ISPs, telecommunications and IT equipment providers, software suppliers and professional services firms will find these opportunity assessments valuable for developing their strategies for each market.
These reports are available for purchase as a suite, or individually. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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ICT Investment Opportunities in Ethiopia - 2010
Published: March - 2010
37 pages
9 charts
5 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Ethiopia has the lowest overall teledensity in Africa. The population is approaching 90 million, but there are less than 1 million fixed lines in service, and a little more than 3.3 million mobile subscribers. The number of internet users is dismal – below 500,000 at the end of 2009. Communications service provision is reserved for the Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation (ETC), one of the few monopoly providers left on the African continent.
There are indications that the Ethiopian government will finally start to liberalise the telecommunications sector, and it has already appointed a French partner – on a revenue sharing basis – to assist with the management and technical operations of the incumbent ETC. Liberalisation will create a substantial set of investment opportunities in the ICT sector. It is expected that the liberalisation agenda will include allowing competition into the mobile segment. Key uncertainties are the timing and scale of liberalisation that will take place, but it is widely recognised that before the country sees any of the benefits widespread communications access, it will need to allow the private sector to take a prominent role in developing the market.
By 2014 the number of fixed line subscribers in Ethiopia is expected to increase to 4.4 million, representing an annual average growth rate of 38% p.a. The number of mobile subscribers is expected to grow at 43% per year over the period, reaching almost 20 million by 2014. Even at these high growth levels the overall teledensity will be less than 25% in 2014, indicating that the market will be nowhere near saturation. The number of internet users will jump to 12 million, but internet subscribers will still be low at 1.4 million at the end of 2014. Ethiopia presents an opportunity for investors to reap vast returns as the liberalisation agenda gets underway.
In this report we provide a comprehensive analysis of propsects for investment in ICTs in Ethiopia. Forecasts are provided for mobile, fixed and internet usage. Investment opportunities are identified. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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ICT Investment Opportunities in Nigeria - 2010
Published: March - 2010
53 pages
10 charts
9 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest markets, with a population exceeding 150 million people. It has enjoyed a GDP growth rate averaging more than 6% per year over the past eight years. The telecommunications market is fully liberalized, with competition allowed in virtually all segments. And there is a unified licensing regime in place, which allows operators to offer converged services. The total number of fixed lines (including fixed wireless access) was as paltry 1.4 million at the end of 2009. The failed sale of Nitel, the state-owned fixed line operator, resulted in the loss of 90% of its subscribers. The Nigerian government is once again looking for a private sector partner to take control of the troubled Nitel. And while, overall, fixed wireless access has grown, there is a great deal of volatility amongst the fourteen licensed operators.
There are more than 70 million mobile subscribers in Nigeria and it has the largest mobile subscriber base in Africa. With the mobile subscriber penetration potential being more than 100%, there is ample room for growth in the market. National backbone coverage is limited and, in keeping with the government’s Vision 2020 initiative, there are plans underway to extend the backbone, which will provide additional opportunities for investors. The imminent lighting up of the MainOne and Glo-1 undersea cables is also likely to yield a wide range of growth opportunities in making international bandwidth more readily available.
The Nigerian government has established a number investment promotion initiatives whereby it will provide funding support to investors that address certain types of investments, most notably those aimed at providing broadband access to specific stakeholder groups or communities. The government is also actively promoting electronics manufacturing in Nigeria on the basis that Nigerian ICT markets are big enough to support local manufacture. Nigeria thus offers a wide range of investment opportunities in a rapidly growing market.
In this report we provide a comprehensive analysis of propsects for investment in ICTs in Nigeria. Forecasts are provided for mobile, fixed and internet usage. Investment opportunities are identified. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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ICT Investment Opportunities in Zimbabwe - 2010
Published: March - 2010
38 pages
10 charts
7 tables
| Table of contents | News release |
Zimbabwe is notorious for breaking all inflation records, shunning the economic wisdom that has developed in the world, and embarking on an aggressive program of land distribution and redistribution of wealth that was euphemistically know as indigenisation. As could be expected, this trajectory was neither politically nor economically sustainable. There are indications that Zimbabwe has reached a turning point in its destiny, with the dollarisation of the economy that followed shortly after the power sharing political agreement. Fixed line penetration has grown at a modest 3% p.a. during the last half of the crisis decade, reaching only 365,400 subscribers at the end of 2009. The size of the mobile subscriber base more than doubled in 2009, approaching 3.9 million subscribers at year end, testament to the renewed faith that mobile operators have in the Zimbabwean economy, and demonstrative of the huge latent demand in the country.
The Government of National Unity is in the process of wrestling with an ICT bill that will seek to clear the way for further investment in the ICT sector in Zimbabwe. In addition, it is looking for a strategic partner for the incumbent state-owned fixed line operator, TelOne, with Telkom South Africa currently conducting due diligence to act in such a capacity.
Given the low level of market development in Zimbabwe, investment opportunities exist in all areas of the ICT sector. There are a number of public sector and private sector projects underway – and investment proposals being prepared – to improve the fibre optic cable infrastructure in the country, and to connect, over land, to various undersea cable landing stations. Econet and Telecel have both launched major network upgrade and expansion initiatives to cater for the surge in mobile demand. And there is a large opportunity for providing last mile access using different technologies.
Zimbabwe offers a myriad of investment opportunities in a market that is set to grow very rapidly as the political and economic situation normalizes. The risks are likely to be high for the next two years, especially with recent indigenization initiatives, but there is a great deal of opportunity to earn superior returns as the telecommunications sector in Zimbabwe rebuilds itself to offer better and new services.
In this report we provide a comprehensive analysis of propsects for investment in ICTs in Nigeria. Forecasts are provided for mobile, fixed and internet usage. Investment opportunities are identified. View a complete table of contents here. Prices shown below are in Canadian dollars.
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